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Wimbledon Odds: Can anyone stop Novak Djokovic’s historic march?

Novak Djokovic faces anything but a cakewalk in his quest to tie Roger Federer’s all-time record of eight Wimbledon men’s titles. But oddsmakers are clearly confident the man who already owns the most major titles in history will add one more to his resume come Sunday.

The four-time defending champion — Wimbledon was canceled in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic — is coming off a grueling four-set match against No. 7 seed Andrey Rublev. Djokovic’s semifinal opponent is Jannik Sinner, the 21-year-old No. 8 seed. In fact, this is Sinner’s first semifinal at any Grand Slam event. He has dropped only two sets through his first five matches in the tournament, but he has also yet to faced a seeded player.

That will come to an end against the second-seeded Djokovic. The 38-year-old has gone four sets in each of his past two matches, but he’s still the prohibitive -550 favorite by BetMGM to end the run of Sinner (+400). Djokovic is -185 to win the match at DraftKings, where he has been backed by 83 percent of the match bets and 78 percent of the money.

Even if Djokovic does, he faces a stiff test in either potential final matchup.

Top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a straight-sets win over No. 6 seed Holger Rune after dropping a lone set in each of his previous two matches. He is the -275 favorite ahead of his semifinal against No. 3 seed Daniil Medvedev (+220), who rallied from a set down to beat unranked American Christopher Eubanks in five sets. Medvedev has dropped only one other set en route to his date with Alcaraz. They are the past two winners of the U.S. Open, but both men will be making their semifinal debuts at Wimbledon. Although two other previous Grand Slam champions remain in the hunt, Djokovic owns 21 more than Alcaraz and Medvedev combined.

The Serbian is the -200 favorite at BetMGM to claim his 24th career major title, ahead of Alcaraz at +250. Medvedev is being offered at +900, while Sinner is the longshot at +1100.

Ironically, at the time of his semifinal win, Sinner was the youngest men’s semifinalist at Wimbledon since Djokovic in 2007. That distinction lasted only long enough for the 20-year-old Alcaraz to take care of Rune. Djokovic also eliminated Sinner in last year’s quarterfinals at the All England Club, and he already tied one of Federer’s other records by reaching his 46th Grand Slam semifinal.

“I think any tennis player wants to be in a position where everyone wants to win against you,” Djokovic said. “I think it is a privilege, as Billie Jean (King) said. Pressure is part of what we do, it’s part of our sport. It’s never going to go away. … “I know that they want to get a scalp, they want to win. But it ain’t happening, still,” he added with a laugh. “Very humble!” While Djokovic has been backed by a book-high 54.9 percent of the money wagered on the men’s champion, it’s Alcaraz who is BetMGM’s biggest liability. The Spaniard leads the draw with 22.9 percent of the money backing him to win and is second with 22.1 percent of the money since opening at +700. –Field Level Media


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