Packers at Dolphins: Christmas Day Preview, Prop Picks, Prediction

The Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins received early gifts ahead of their critical Week 16 Christmas Day showdown in South Florida. The Packers’ longshot playoff hopes received a major boost with three teams directly above them in the NFC standings — Washington, Seattle and Detroit — all losing on Christmas Eve. Green Bay (6-8) can pull within a 1/2 game of the Commanders for the final wild-card spot in the conference with a win on Sunday.

Miami (8-6) also received help with New England (7-8) losing after the New York Jets fell on Thursday night. The Dolphins enter Sunday 1 1/2 games ahead of both division rivals for the final spot in the AFC. The Packers have won their past two games while the Dolphins are riding a three-game losing streak, but it’s Miami that is a consensus 3.5-point favorite. The line opened at 4.5 at BetMGM but shifted with Green Bay drawing 60 percent of the spread-line bets and 64 percent of the money.

PROP PICKS

Over 49.5 Total Points (-112 at BetRivers): After a slate of Christmas Eve games marked by games contested in frigid conditions, seeing some firepower on display in Miami could be a welcome sight for many NFL fans. This has been the most popular prop for the Packers-Dolphins game at the sportsbook, with 98.6 percent of the total bets backing the Over as of Friday.

Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings): Mostert has only two 100-yard rushing games this season, but he has topped 62.5 yards in six of his past 10 games. That includes 17 carries for 136 yards last week, and Miami would be wise to attack a Green Bay defense that ranks 29th in the NFL in allowing an average of 5.0 yards per carry.

Packers RB AJ Dillon Anytime TD (+110 at BetMGM): Dillon has four touchdowns in his past three games, with at least one in each contest during that span. Green Bay has made a concerted effort to rely more heavily on the Aaron Jones-Dillon tandem, and that has contributed to a steady diet of red-zone carries for the latter.

INJURY REPORT

Packers: Left tackle David Bakhtiari (knee/abdomen) was listed as doubtful on the final injury report. Guard/tackle Elgton Jenkins (knee) returned to limited practice Thursday and Friday along with Jones (knee), and both are expected to play.

Dolphins: Wide receiver River Cracraft (calf) and offensive tackle Eric Fisher (calf) are doubtful. Offensive tackle Terron Armstead (toe, pec, knee), outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips (toe), safety Eric Rowe (hamstring) and running back Jeff Wilson (hip) were all listed as questionable.

PREDICTION

Miami’s three-game losing streak has all come on the road. The Dolphins are back at home and while the Packers have won two straight to remain a factor, those wins have come against the reeling Bears and Rams. Miami is the better team and gets its playoff push back on track with the Dolphins’ bevvy of playmakers enjoying a big day at home.

Dolphins 31 - Packers 23

6.– Field Level Media